* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/25/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 40 41 39 36 34 32 32 33 V (KT) LAND 35 33 35 36 37 37 38 36 33 31 29 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 34 33 33 32 32 32 34 37 33 29 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 14 21 26 24 30 16 16 11 14 9 14 SHEAR DIR 242 242 246 255 263 270 280 281 289 294 290 305 268 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.8 30.0 29.0 24.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 157 159 160 162 160 158 160 152 105 132 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 3 3 5 2 6 2 6 3 5 1 700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 65 66 60 55 51 48 43 40 39 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 17 27 28 23 27 17 29 25 44 26 39 200 MB DIV 2 -3 16 20 -16 6 -24 -24 -17 4 -25 -6 14 LAND (KM) -31 -22 1 16 30 53 54 62 58 57 39 -38 -24 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.2 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.8 30.3 30.5 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.8 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.4 112.7 112.9 113.1 113.4 113.5 113.6 113.5 113.5 113.7 115.0 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 3 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 31. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -16. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/25/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/25/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY