* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 65 69 72 77 80 84 84 83 81 78 78 V (KT) LAND 50 58 65 69 72 76 79 59 60 59 58 54 54 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 66 72 76 89 90 68 70 78 83 87 89 SHEAR (KTS) 6 2 11 16 16 11 8 9 8 9 6 8 2 SHEAR DIR 36 298 331 9 33 9 21 331 35 321 16 276 196 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 151 156 161 160 160 160 161 161 160 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 140 141 145 148 143 143 142 142 141 138 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 68 64 58 56 58 59 58 59 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 16 16 8 0 -5 -8 -4 -1 -11 -16 -31 -45 200 MB DIV 44 38 13 -2 -11 -12 -4 -11 -1 0 -6 -15 -4 LAND (KM) 221 142 84 80 11 63 15 -19 14 42 28 21 39 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.0 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.2 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.5 71.1 71.7 72.3 72.8 73.8 74.5 75.2 75.9 76.6 77.4 77.9 78.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 7 4 5 4 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 91 85 85 91 40 62 0 0 39 37 16 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 18. 21. 27. 30. 34. 36. 36. 34. 31. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 15. 19. 22. 27. 30. 34. 34. 33. 31. 28. 28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY