* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 54 60 67 69 72 73 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 54 60 67 69 72 73 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 39 44 51 59 67 74 79 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 17 13 12 8 5 7 1 7 1 7 3 SHEAR DIR 351 312 318 339 353 341 19 310 12 280 30 265 274 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 136 136 138 140 142 144 146 149 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 122 123 122 124 126 128 129 131 132 132 128 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 53 58 57 60 67 62 63 60 61 58 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 5 7 8 9 12 12 14 13 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -27 -33 -29 -21 -11 -12 -3 7 10 12 7 21 200 MB DIV 5 20 31 38 35 15 11 -1 43 12 30 0 8 LAND (KM) 1151 1125 1103 1094 1088 1016 967 922 904 895 915 967 1066 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.1 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 53.9 54.4 54.9 55.3 56.1 56.7 57.4 58.2 59.2 60.4 61.4 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 5 4 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 50 47 46 47 52 60 56 42 41 44 46 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 20. 29. 35. 43. 47. 50. 51. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 29. 35. 42. 44. 48. 48. 50. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY