* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 41 43 43 43 40 41 40 40 37 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 42 44 44 43 41 41 40 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 37 37 37 37 36 36 38 40 44 36 29 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 22 28 30 26 25 16 12 6 9 8 17 SHEAR DIR 254 242 256 263 270 263 282 283 299 261 252 241 236 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.1 29.8 30.0 29.8 30.0 30.1 24.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 160 160 160 162 158 160 158 161 164 103 92 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 3 5 3 4 3 4 3 4 1 2 700-500 MB RH 74 71 66 66 63 57 51 46 44 39 41 40 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 25 23 14 38 24 34 27 46 28 33 20 200 MB DIV 4 10 26 -15 -8 6 -23 -3 -14 15 -2 18 25 LAND (KM) -21 5 32 37 44 36 58 56 70 71 65 -80 -189 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.8 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.5 30.8 31.7 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.1 113.2 113.5 113.5 113.7 113.7 114.0 115.7 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 5 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 6. 5. 5. 2. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY