* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 69 73 77 81 86 87 87 85 83 80 78 V (KT) LAND 55 63 69 73 75 80 57 40 33 30 29 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 55 64 71 77 88 93 72 47 36 32 29 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 0 7 16 13 8 11 6 14 7 13 9 11 16 SHEAR DIR 6 334 14 32 42 17 314 354 331 346 282 279 236 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 158 159 161 162 163 163 163 161 162 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 144 148 147 147 147 146 145 143 143 144 146 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 10 11 10 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 72 71 66 62 58 55 52 59 54 59 55 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 15 7 -3 -9 -13 -13 0 -10 -8 -19 -29 -39 200 MB DIV 32 -5 -13 -4 -18 -24 -18 0 -12 -5 -13 2 -4 LAND (KM) 135 85 58 0 30 30 -30 -30 -59 -24 -33 -46 0 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.5 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.2 71.9 72.6 73.2 73.8 74.8 75.9 77.0 77.8 78.5 79.3 80.3 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 84 88 75 5 43 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 17. 20. 25. 31. 33. 34. 33. 31. 28. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 31. 32. 32. 31. 28. 25. 23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY