* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 52 58 62 63 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 52 58 62 63 65 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 42 46 51 56 60 64 SHEAR (KTS) 9 17 15 14 11 11 8 15 7 16 5 11 10 SHEAR DIR 333 316 342 349 331 344 311 337 287 333 324 319 265 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 133 134 136 138 140 140 143 145 143 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 119 119 121 122 124 126 125 126 126 123 118 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 59 54 57 54 54 57 55 57 53 56 56 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 9 9 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -19 -22 -8 0 -2 12 5 18 26 21 13 0 200 MB DIV 16 37 37 31 36 13 9 26 11 5 13 4 12 LAND (KM) 1197 1187 1178 1187 1195 1145 1126 1117 1125 1144 1194 1273 1381 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.4 21.6 23.0 24.5 25.9 27.3 28.7 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.1 54.4 55.0 55.5 56.2 57.1 58.2 59.3 60.3 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 46 45 42 46 40 46 36 37 24 24 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 27. 33. 38. 41. 42. 43. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 33. 37. 38. 40. 41. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY