* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 38 38 36 37 33 30 27 28 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 38 38 36 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 33 32 31 33 28 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 21 29 32 26 31 22 20 6 9 3 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 236 255 265 269 266 270 273 281 275 278 236 255 N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 23.8 21.6 23.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 158 158 159 161 162 163 99 76 96 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 5 6 2 6 1 5 0 3 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 63 61 54 49 45 40 37 37 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 24 18 27 28 25 22 15 18 9 25 N/A 200 MB DIV 20 26 -11 -5 -18 -32 -12 -11 -9 -22 -15 6 N/A LAND (KM) 1 17 32 40 52 53 57 70 10 -106 -242 -233 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.3 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.6 31.3 32.3 33.9 33.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.7 113.0 113.1 113.2 113.4 113.5 113.7 113.9 115.7 114.9 113.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 3 2 2 2 4 6 7 5 7 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 27. 24. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. -3. -6. -9. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. -2. -5. -8. -7. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY