* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/26/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 82 85 88 93 93 93 91 87 83 79 V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 70 80 83 76 62 62 60 56 52 47 V (KT) LGE mod 70 78 84 77 87 93 98 61 76 82 85 86 83 SHEAR (KTS) 7 12 9 4 10 7 9 12 15 7 16 13 15 SHEAR DIR 341 14 29 31 6 60 331 12 325 303 282 256 283 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 156 157 161 162 164 163 166 165 165 165 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 146 146 149 148 148 146 150 149 151 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 72 69 62 58 62 55 55 59 57 56 55 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 17 11 -2 -8 -3 -15 -2 7 -2 -2 -8 -11 -17 200 MB DIV 1 -3 -11 -24 -21 2 0 5 -1 16 -37 8 -21 LAND (KM) 84 85 26 -11 22 33 0 5 20 51 33 18 67 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 72.4 73.0 73.6 74.2 75.4 76.4 77.3 78.2 79.5 81.1 82.6 83.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 85 92 2 16 24 7 34 9 45 27 30 4 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 18. 22. 26. 26. 25. 22. 18. 14. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 23. 23. 23. 21. 17. 13. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/26/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/26/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED