* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/26/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 42 50 60 65 71 73 77 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 42 50 60 65 71 73 77 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 37 43 51 59 66 71 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 13 10 10 6 10 1 5 3 8 6 16 SHEAR DIR 304 326 341 330 315 326 298 175 253 100 232 229 218 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 136 136 137 141 143 147 150 153 153 147 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 121 122 123 127 129 133 135 136 134 126 120 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 58 56 63 59 62 60 63 58 62 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 10 11 9 13 14 16 15 15 14 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -11 -4 8 -1 1 11 22 18 21 3 25 14 200 MB DIV 32 33 36 44 15 18 1 22 2 27 2 16 18 LAND (KM) 1196 1179 1152 1107 1063 987 917 851 839 880 970 1090 1186 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.7 24.1 25.5 26.9 28.2 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 54.4 54.8 55.3 55.7 56.6 57.6 59.0 60.5 62.0 63.4 64.4 65.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 6 7 9 10 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 43 44 48 55 49 42 43 53 44 29 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 10. 18. 26. 35. 40. 46. 49. 52. 53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 9. 17. 25. 35. 40. 46. 48. 52. 50. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/26/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/26/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY