* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/26/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 86 87 89 93 95 97 96 94 90 86 82 V (KT) LAND 80 84 83 84 86 90 92 94 93 91 87 81 77 V (KT) LGE mod 80 88 108 108 107 106 107 108 108 107 105 90 96 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 9 11 12 2 10 5 9 12 8 16 16 SHEAR DIR 357 15 4 1 26 22 2 275 325 239 278 229 244 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 157 161 162 162 164 164 164 165 165 166 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 146 149 150 149 150 149 149 151 152 153 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 10 12 11 700-500 MB RH 69 62 59 61 58 53 59 56 58 54 59 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 16 1 -7 0 -1 -2 8 1 0 -12 -13 -18 -16 200 MB DIV 4 -1 -20 -2 -4 -12 6 -14 0 1 16 4 -7 LAND (KM) 58 6 12 23 80 54 22 94 142 133 114 10 242 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.4 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 72.8 73.4 74.1 74.8 76.0 77.4 78.6 79.7 81.0 82.7 84.4 86.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 89 44 0 29 8 19 22 11 21 30 30 65 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 13. 18. 19. 21. 18. 15. 11. 7. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 15. 17. 16. 14. 10. 6. 2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/26/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY