* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/26/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 55 59 62 66 68 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 55 59 62 66 68 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 36 41 45 49 54 57 SHEAR (KTS) 21 17 15 11 8 1 1 12 9 17 12 21 13 SHEAR DIR 302 312 310 326 326 272 4 170 146 160 184 183 201 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 141 143 145 147 149 153 156 155 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 123 124 126 127 130 132 134 136 137 133 129 127 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 64 67 65 67 63 62 59 57 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 10 10 9 11 12 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -7 7 1 -3 0 5 15 8 9 10 16 36 200 MB DIV 25 46 47 16 20 2 7 26 16 5 -1 14 19 LAND (KM) 1041 1001 961 921 882 818 754 723 725 791 864 927 949 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.4 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.3 26.2 27.0 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 56.4 56.8 57.3 57.7 58.6 59.7 61.0 62.4 63.7 64.8 65.5 66.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 53 56 59 60 60 47 47 45 66 52 40 36 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 945 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 31. 35. 37. 41. 43. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 30. 34. 37. 41. 43. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/26/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY