* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/26/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 32 32 31 28 30 30 29 30 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 32 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 28 27 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 23 23 29 32 24 28 16 14 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 266 262 267 272 272 280 279 287 282 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 27.6 26.1 28.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 165 165 165 138 120 149 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 3 3 6 2 5 0 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 60 57 49 46 39 36 40 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 21 24 29 21 20 16 17 23 23 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -6 5 -3 -20 -3 -17 -2 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 50 55 46 38 27 42 -11 -69 -27 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 30.1 30.6 31.3 32.3 31.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.6 112.8 112.9 112.9 113.2 113.4 114.9 115.0 114.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 3 5 5 2 5 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. -2. 0. 0. -1. 0. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/26/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY