* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/26/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 71 73 77 81 83 85 87 87 84 83 V (KT) LAND 70 77 77 78 79 83 87 89 91 93 92 89 88 V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 76 77 79 83 88 93 95 98 99 98 95 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 14 15 10 8 7 11 3 9 8 15 10 SHEAR DIR 3 340 359 19 45 353 36 345 9 300 263 283 262 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 161 162 162 164 165 163 163 166 164 159 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 148 149 149 151 152 149 151 154 151 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 57 53 55 60 56 57 55 57 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -7 -2 1 0 10 13 6 6 2 -4 -8 -18 200 MB DIV 10 -10 0 0 14 -1 1 -2 14 -14 14 -8 13 LAND (KM) -10 17 36 68 66 50 61 184 196 151 18 216 344 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.7 20.2 21.0 22.1 23.3 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 73.4 74.0 74.7 75.3 76.7 78.1 79.6 81.0 82.7 84.5 86.2 87.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 9 17 6 24 16 22 11 27 33 40 44 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 15. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 14. 13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/26/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY