* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/26/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 39 46 52 56 58 63 67 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 39 46 52 56 58 63 67 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 47 53 58 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 14 13 6 8 12 10 13 15 13 14 4 SHEAR DIR 311 285 288 285 246 223 154 189 152 192 190 229 226 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 142 142 144 146 148 149 152 155 156 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 125 126 126 128 131 133 134 137 138 136 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 69 68 68 64 64 63 61 58 55 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 11 12 12 14 13 13 12 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -7 -4 -7 -10 -9 4 0 -5 7 33 47 60 200 MB DIV 35 38 16 11 27 -1 35 2 22 9 13 14 6 LAND (KM) 911 869 827 788 750 673 596 540 534 569 633 631 632 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.8 22.7 23.5 24.2 24.6 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 57.7 58.1 58.5 58.9 59.8 60.9 62.1 63.5 64.8 65.9 66.8 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 63 65 66 61 58 59 63 53 53 50 51 58 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 915 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 7. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 21. 28. 31. 33. 38. 42. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 38. 42. 46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/26/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY