* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/27/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 70 72 74 79 81 85 87 85 83 82 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 70 72 74 79 81 85 87 85 82 81 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 68 70 72 78 83 88 93 98 99 95 91 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 15 9 6 15 4 8 8 8 21 16 16 SHEAR DIR 331 350 356 16 315 5 329 359 236 251 221 244 244 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 162 163 164 164 163 166 166 161 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 147 149 149 151 151 151 154 156 149 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 10 11 10 12 10 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 59 54 63 58 60 57 59 55 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 10 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 11 13 11 29 28 26 27 28 29 13 6 200 MB DIV -2 0 7 30 -1 -21 -1 -6 8 17 1 2 -26 LAND (KM) 16 23 49 72 58 44 90 194 162 51 181 335 334 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.7 23.1 24.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 73.9 74.4 75.1 75.7 77.2 78.5 80.0 81.7 83.7 85.9 87.6 89.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 43 6 7 58 24 14 12 41 23 10 72 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 17. 19. 22. 23. 22. 20. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 16. 20. 22. 20. 18. 17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY