* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/27/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 45 52 54 57 60 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 45 52 54 57 60 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 58 SHEAR (KTS) 13 17 15 8 8 5 12 4 16 8 19 9 13 SHEAR DIR 300 294 309 294 281 353 162 140 167 183 191 231 202 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 144 144 146 148 150 152 155 155 156 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 125 127 128 130 133 134 134 136 135 137 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 69 69 67 65 65 61 59 57 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -1 6 4 -8 -9 -12 -10 -19 -31 -12 -12 -1 2 200 MB DIV 20 20 21 31 13 10 0 9 9 9 -5 0 -11 LAND (KM) 882 846 809 770 731 663 597 553 553 560 567 535 490 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.7 21.1 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.1 58.4 58.8 59.2 60.1 61.1 62.4 63.5 64.7 65.8 67.0 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 58 55 55 60 61 52 54 50 49 58 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 858 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 27. 29. 33. 35. 38. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 27. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/27/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/27/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY