* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/27/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 63 69 75 78 83 81 82 80 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 63 69 75 78 82 80 81 79 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 55 57 63 69 76 84 91 97 97 93 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 11 8 16 12 7 5 4 5 11 10 21 SHEAR DIR 347 352 351 348 351 55 344 80 273 224 259 270 301 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 162 162 165 163 162 166 164 161 163 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 147 149 149 152 151 152 157 152 148 149 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 53 57 59 57 60 57 56 54 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 11 10 12 9 10 7 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 34 26 35 42 30 26 22 21 3 -4 -50 200 MB DIV 2 11 28 -9 -26 -5 18 26 -27 34 -21 23 -8 LAND (KM) 22 10 30 88 100 77 118 221 171 22 235 411 213 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.8 20.8 22.1 23.6 25.3 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 73.4 74.0 74.5 75.2 75.8 77.2 78.7 80.5 82.7 84.6 86.2 88.0 89.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 53 13 10 3 24 17 16 32 36 42 46 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 20. 27. 29. 35. 33. 34. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 25. 28. 33. 31. 32. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED