* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/27/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 41 47 54 58 63 64 67 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 41 47 54 58 63 64 67 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 44 49 53 58 62 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 9 9 9 7 6 11 12 10 13 8 12 SHEAR DIR 292 305 291 259 274 138 203 134 191 172 223 190 232 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 145 146 148 150 152 156 157 158 160 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 128 128 130 132 134 136 138 138 138 139 137 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 66 64 64 62 61 56 59 51 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -21 -26 -27 -26 -31 -39 -43 -34 -29 -13 -5 200 MB DIV 16 20 33 29 10 0 -4 21 27 14 2 2 -5 LAND (KM) 859 817 776 735 697 626 568 554 574 586 555 530 508 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.8 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.5 58.9 59.4 59.9 61.0 62.3 63.7 65.1 66.6 67.8 69.0 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 57 53 50 52 55 58 53 53 49 52 69 67 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 30. 33. 37. 39. 42. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 29. 33. 38. 39. 42. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/27/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/27/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED