* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/27/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 46 46 46 51 57 63 67 71 74 76 76 V (KT) LAND 50 47 46 46 46 51 57 63 67 70 73 75 75 V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 44 44 45 48 53 59 67 73 77 79 77 SHEAR (KTS) 20 13 8 13 17 4 8 5 7 12 13 18 7 SHEAR DIR 342 346 331 342 7 343 355 235 297 249 227 228 277 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 163 163 165 163 164 166 162 163 161 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 149 150 151 154 152 153 154 150 149 147 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 11 12 10 11 10 11 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 63 63 55 57 62 57 63 60 62 58 59 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 13 22 13 20 29 26 26 11 12 8 -11 -23 -56 200 MB DIV 3 26 -25 -20 -20 12 15 1 24 21 7 -13 -3 LAND (KM) 32 33 68 88 91 56 169 167 89 85 302 355 145 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.5 21.4 22.6 24.2 26.0 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 73.7 74.2 74.7 75.5 76.2 77.8 79.5 81.3 83.3 85.1 86.6 88.4 90.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 14 7 2 2 27 17 34 24 20 31 41 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -4. -4. 1. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY