* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/27/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 49 56 62 65 67 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 49 56 62 65 67 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 58 63 68 72 SHEAR (KTS) 21 10 6 5 7 6 2 14 6 16 7 9 6 SHEAR DIR 328 333 314 293 321 202 114 157 159 184 226 213 279 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 143 145 145 147 149 152 154 157 158 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 127 128 130 130 133 135 135 137 139 139 137 138 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 65 64 64 61 57 53 52 51 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -23 -31 -33 -31 -29 -39 -44 -41 -29 -13 -12 0 200 MB DIV 31 37 29 4 0 -16 -4 4 5 -10 -3 -26 -11 LAND (KM) 875 836 797 759 723 659 593 589 590 611 572 528 511 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.3 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 57.9 58.3 58.8 59.2 60.2 61.7 63.0 64.4 65.9 67.4 68.6 69.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 66 70 68 61 57 58 55 59 43 47 65 71 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 25. 31. 38. 41. 43. 44. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 24. 31. 37. 40. 42. 43. 45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/27/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/27/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY