* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 51 57 63 67 72 74 77 75 76 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 51 57 63 67 72 71 74 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 45 46 48 53 58 64 70 73 78 78 74 SHEAR (KTS) 13 6 13 16 12 13 5 8 6 8 15 22 15 SHEAR DIR 343 328 339 10 35 336 350 280 234 258 229 248 229 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 162 165 165 166 167 168 166 161 152 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 148 149 152 154 155 154 154 153 147 134 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 54 55 58 59 60 62 59 64 55 57 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 10 11 11 11 9 9 7 9 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 29 37 40 27 20 6 11 -14 -11 -47 -39 200 MB DIV 15 -29 -17 -6 4 6 30 5 37 14 33 -8 33 LAND (KM) 36 62 66 65 66 47 144 100 22 140 414 228 49 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 23.5 25.7 27.6 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.6 75.1 75.8 76.4 78.1 80.1 81.9 83.5 85.0 86.4 87.7 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 9 10 11 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 6 11 48 17 24 17 40 17 19 74 35 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 31. 34. 32. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 29. 32. 30. 31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY