* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 50 55 60 62 68 69 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 50 55 60 62 68 69 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 46 52 57 63 68 72 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 7 4 3 6 7 10 10 13 3 9 8 SHEAR DIR 343 289 295 330 197 239 113 189 168 213 245 276 292 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 145 147 150 151 154 158 157 159 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 130 130 131 134 137 137 138 141 139 140 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 63 64 58 62 55 54 46 44 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 10 9 13 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -10 -13 -19 -16 -23 -28 -33 -36 -30 -21 -36 -23 200 MB DIV 28 38 12 -2 2 -16 31 1 -8 -9 -17 -17 -8 LAND (KM) 881 827 774 727 684 585 537 544 578 557 521 506 488 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.3 22.3 23.1 23.7 24.1 24.3 24.3 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 57.4 58.0 58.5 59.1 59.6 61.1 62.8 64.2 65.8 67.3 68.9 70.1 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 63 70 65 61 58 62 55 41 46 63 68 58 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 25. 31. 36. 39. 45. 46. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 25. 30. 35. 37. 43. 44. 49. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY