* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/28/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 42 44 51 58 66 71 76 80 82 81 V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 42 44 51 58 66 70 75 79 81 80 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 38 39 44 51 58 72 78 81 79 75 SHEAR (KTS) 8 14 14 8 6 9 9 5 12 13 17 15 18 SHEAR DIR 324 337 356 31 314 330 229 226 219 213 217 217 223 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 164 165 163 166 166 164 163 157 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 149 151 152 152 155 154 152 149 140 129 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 13 12 11 12 10 11 10 11 8 10 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 57 59 65 61 63 63 62 58 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 12 12 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 24 36 47 43 41 46 27 31 23 0 -11 -28 -26 200 MB DIV -23 -35 -10 -3 6 30 20 46 39 20 26 32 22 LAND (KM) 91 97 86 77 67 172 166 104 62 293 338 149 45 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.5 24.2 26.5 27.9 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 75.8 76.4 77.1 77.8 79.4 81.2 83.1 84.9 86.4 87.5 88.6 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 9 10 10 11 12 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 1 5 21 30 18 32 26 36 18 27 26 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 28. 32. 38. 41. 43. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 2. 4. 11. 18. 26. 31. 36. 40. 42. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/28/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/28/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY