* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/28/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 52 58 63 65 67 67 65 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 52 58 63 65 67 67 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 44 50 57 65 72 77 79 78 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 9 5 6 6 8 3 10 10 6 22 29 SHEAR DIR 303 294 311 290 268 321 147 207 202 265 280 279 294 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 144 146 146 150 153 156 158 157 154 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 129 131 133 133 137 137 138 138 135 129 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 59 58 58 57 52 50 46 39 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 -11 -17 -18 -27 -31 -43 -38 -25 -12 17 36 200 MB DIV 34 24 1 3 -23 -5 2 -4 -8 9 -38 -3 -18 LAND (KM) 934 889 847 798 756 691 693 725 804 831 850 831 787 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.5 23.7 24.7 25.7 26.5 27.0 27.0 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 57.4 57.9 58.6 59.2 60.8 62.3 63.8 65.2 66.5 67.4 68.1 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 62 67 67 55 50 49 63 54 45 33 35 39 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 32. 37. 40. 40. 39. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 28. 33. 35. 37. 37. 35. 35. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/28/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/28/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY