* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/28/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 51 55 61 68 75 79 84 84 85 81 V (KT) LAND 45 46 40 38 44 51 58 65 68 73 73 74 70 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 40 38 43 49 57 65 73 81 85 85 82 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 11 7 9 5 9 4 8 9 12 7 14 SHEAR DIR 327 339 4 310 322 336 295 291 238 238 261 230 250 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 159 159 160 164 163 162 160 152 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 148 148 148 148 150 154 152 148 142 132 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 12 11 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 59 64 65 66 69 68 67 58 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 10 11 11 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 55 51 57 45 30 31 18 16 -13 -13 -43 200 MB DIV -12 -13 6 5 29 32 14 68 19 49 14 59 -1 LAND (KM) 77 7 0 -20 10 181 268 151 73 302 378 187 52 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.8 22.4 24.2 26.0 27.5 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.2 76.9 77.7 78.4 79.9 81.5 83.2 85.1 86.6 87.7 88.7 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 12 19 9999 31 18 38 21 18 31 32 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 32. 36. 40. 41. 42. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 30. 34. 39. 39. 40. 36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/28/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/28/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY