* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/28/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 52 58 65 69 74 74 74 73 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 52 58 65 69 74 74 74 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 53 60 68 75 80 82 83 SHEAR (KTS) 12 8 4 7 9 2 9 6 7 5 12 13 17 SHEAR DIR 294 294 260 253 274 154 226 197 238 322 300 311 340 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 148 148 152 154 158 159 158 155 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 133 135 136 138 138 141 140 135 130 130 133 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 63 58 61 56 59 55 53 51 50 41 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -12 -17 -20 -21 -34 -34 -30 -33 -17 -20 32 41 200 MB DIV 23 7 0 -2 -18 12 11 23 2 18 -11 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 854 796 743 681 628 579 586 646 679 723 754 748 688 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.4 26.4 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.4 59.0 59.8 60.6 62.4 63.9 65.5 67.0 68.1 68.7 69.1 69.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 9 10 8 9 7 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 68 66 57 58 60 58 48 46 60 61 47 43 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 22. 28. 36. 41. 47. 46. 46. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 28. 35. 39. 44. 44. 44. 43. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/28/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/28/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY