* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/28/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 75 80 87 93 96 99 98 93 87 81 V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 63 68 74 80 84 86 86 81 75 69 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 66 72 82 92 99 102 102 98 89 81 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 7 7 9 7 6 10 10 16 11 16 11 SHEAR DIR 333 1 311 312 303 251 270 213 202 205 193 211 213 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.7 29.2 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 159 159 158 162 162 158 165 155 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 149 151 153 151 149 152 151 146 152 138 126 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 11 10 11 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 64 65 63 66 65 63 60 57 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 13 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 59 55 56 62 62 41 34 35 18 13 -15 -19 -36 200 MB DIV -16 -2 0 31 37 8 36 44 30 24 34 29 -11 LAND (KM) 54 -5 -8 22 137 310 201 33 185 378 189 58 49 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.9 17.8 18.1 18.3 19.2 20.3 21.5 23.1 25.0 27.4 28.6 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 76.5 77.3 78.5 79.6 81.3 83.1 84.8 86.5 88.2 90.0 91.0 91.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 11 10 9 10 11 12 13 11 5 1 HEAT CONTENT 19 4 41 35 18 34 23 22 82 57 31 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 23. 30. 36. 39. 41. 39. 35. 29. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 15. 20. 27. 33. 36. 39. 38. 33. 27. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/28/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/28/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY