* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/28/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 47 53 60 65 70 73 74 71 68 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 47 53 60 65 70 73 74 71 68 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 51 58 64 69 75 79 79 76 SHEAR (KTS) 14 10 8 7 5 11 9 9 6 9 18 29 28 SHEAR DIR 286 269 261 262 274 189 228 209 304 287 291 305 322 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 151 152 157 158 156 156 157 151 152 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 138 140 140 144 138 133 132 135 128 127 133 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 57 58 58 59 58 55 53 48 42 44 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -23 -25 -31 -41 -49 -53 -62 -57 -61 -35 -20 -2 200 MB DIV 16 0 8 -12 -3 4 0 1 13 -8 -2 -40 4 LAND (KM) 767 722 690 661 657 708 801 787 761 784 904 889 788 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.4 23.1 24.6 25.9 26.3 26.3 26.7 27.9 27.8 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.4 60.1 61.1 62.0 64.0 65.9 67.1 67.9 68.9 70.1 70.8 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 12 11 8 5 4 6 5 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 60 54 54 52 60 52 45 43 53 39 31 41 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 31. 36. 39. 40. 37. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 12. 18. 25. 30. 35. 38. 39. 36. 33. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/28/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/28/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY