* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 72 77 82 88 94 94 96 93 92 85 82 V (KT) LAND 60 51 48 57 61 68 73 73 74 72 70 64 41 V (KT) LGE mod 60 52 49 57 62 72 83 90 93 94 92 87 52 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 10 9 4 8 10 14 8 12 5 14 10 SHEAR DIR 333 306 327 318 338 289 231 245 221 261 231 283 306 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 160 160 160 166 165 163 159 153 148 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 150 150 151 150 151 156 153 148 142 134 125 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 66 64 65 65 63 66 59 58 51 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 13 12 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 57 54 60 64 58 40 29 20 14 0 -1 -42 -23 200 MB DIV 12 -3 15 37 37 12 37 13 42 19 66 2 21 LAND (KM) 9 -19 -15 73 176 257 113 88 338 332 136 4 -67 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.7 21.1 22.7 24.6 26.3 27.9 29.2 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 77.1 77.9 78.9 79.8 81.5 83.4 85.1 86.6 88.1 89.6 90.5 91.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 22 14 29 20 30 27 21 26 37 34 2 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 28. 33. 35. 38. 36. 35. 28. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 17. 22. 28. 34. 34. 36. 33. 32. 25. 22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY