* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 44 48 53 60 64 69 70 69 66 63 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 44 48 53 60 64 69 70 69 66 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 53 59 65 70 73 75 74 71 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 9 6 5 12 12 10 9 16 24 28 27 SHEAR DIR 272 221 228 256 180 237 212 268 294 310 308 312 279 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 152 154 159 158 157 154 154 153 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 138 140 141 143 139 135 130 129 128 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 58 56 55 59 52 51 46 41 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 9 10 9 10 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -30 -28 -33 -42 -51 -35 -53 -40 -39 -12 0 31 200 MB DIV -9 14 14 15 25 -20 9 15 19 -6 -19 19 -11 LAND (KM) 688 645 617 616 633 714 776 785 806 820 837 833 784 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.8 25.9 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.4 61.1 61.9 62.7 64.6 66.4 67.8 68.9 69.7 70.2 70.9 71.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 8 6 4 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 57 58 57 57 63 48 46 45 36 34 36 46 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 26. 30. 35. 36. 35. 32. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 25. 29. 34. 35. 34. 31. 28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY