* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 08/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 55 65 69 73 75 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 17 17 14 10 5 0 12 16 19 24 29 SHEAR DIR 350 347 7 10 351 347 355 126 237 249 251 232 236 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.0 28.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 163 163 168 171 171 171 171 169 146 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 153 152 151 151 156 159 161 163 158 147 123 104 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 15 12 11 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 74 74 75 73 75 65 64 62 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 48 53 52 49 26 23 3 -16 -36 -14 -32 200 MB DIV 16 45 38 18 26 35 30 20 0 11 0 18 -4 LAND (KM) 55 0 -55 -118 -179 -316 -281 -181 -215 -320 -442 -600 -747 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 21.0 21.9 23.2 24.9 27.0 29.0 30.8 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.4 97.2 98.1 98.9 100.7 102.6 104.1 105.2 105.7 105.8 105.3 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 9 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 25. 31. 36. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 28. 39. 46. 52. 54. 55. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 30. 40. 44. 48. 50. 51. 49. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 08/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 08/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY