* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 72 76 84 89 95 98 99 96 90 83 V (KT) LAND 60 50 60 65 69 77 72 87 89 90 88 82 58 V (KT) LGE mod 60 51 64 67 71 79 88 91 94 93 89 83 60 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 10 2 7 6 16 5 10 6 12 14 17 SHEAR DIR 303 317 325 340 218 248 205 162 201 203 237 283 264 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 160 160 161 163 165 161 162 156 150 149 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 151 153 152 153 155 148 146 136 128 126 122 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.7 -51.4 -50.3 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 12 13 12 10 11 10 10 7 9 5 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 65 63 66 65 64 62 60 57 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 15 14 16 15 17 18 19 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 70 72 57 49 43 39 29 8 0 -10 -21 200 MB DIV 5 15 36 36 28 29 28 30 51 63 60 13 16 LAND (KM) 3 -3 43 159 275 220 -2 242 430 235 111 13 -22 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.2 20.3 21.9 23.7 25.5 27.0 28.1 29.1 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 77.0 77.9 78.7 79.7 80.7 82.7 84.5 86.2 87.7 89.0 90.0 91.0 91.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 58 100 131 120 113 132 126 114 45 33 33 2 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 14. 22. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35. 30. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 29. 35. 38. 39. 36. 30. 23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 104.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY