* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 58 63 69 73 74 74 72 70 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 51 58 63 69 73 74 74 72 70 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 51 56 63 68 74 77 79 79 76 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 8 7 10 6 11 10 11 16 15 22 19 SHEAR DIR 255 237 253 194 204 230 227 314 302 317 325 313 278 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 151 154 157 158 159 156 154 154 153 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 140 144 144 141 138 132 129 129 128 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 61 63 63 63 63 58 56 50 45 39 36 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 12 10 12 11 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -27 -29 -39 -48 -46 -53 -37 -23 3 30 65 72 200 MB DIV 29 20 18 31 11 4 2 11 -6 4 -16 19 -15 LAND (KM) 639 593 573 593 642 727 745 771 805 820 833 833 815 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.5 22.2 23.1 24.0 25.1 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.2 62.1 63.1 64.1 65.9 67.4 68.4 69.0 69.7 70.7 71.1 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 11 9 6 4 3 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 60 61 56 58 50 52 53 46 35 34 42 48 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 25. 31. 34. 35. 34. 33. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 34. 34. 32. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY