* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/29/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 60 64 68 77 83 93 96 97 92 89 81 V (KT) LAND 55 62 66 70 74 83 88 98 100 102 97 94 59 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 62 64 68 78 85 92 94 91 85 77 56 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 2 5 3 6 10 10 18 15 25 19 18 SHEAR DIR 313 321 53 199 218 214 252 194 235 261 279 293 296 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 160 161 166 165 163 159 153 150 148 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 149 152 152 157 153 150 142 134 128 123 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 66 63 64 62 63 56 57 51 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 18 18 20 21 21 20 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 69 75 84 78 59 65 64 64 37 44 13 30 0 200 MB DIV 25 47 50 49 28 47 24 78 30 47 19 23 20 LAND (KM) -6 26 118 226 275 143 72 313 343 147 53 14 -46 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.9 22.5 24.3 26.2 27.8 28.7 29.5 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 78.6 79.4 80.3 81.2 83.2 85.0 86.6 88.1 89.6 91.1 92.1 92.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 103 134 122 117 121 130 122 112 36 33 11 1 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 13. 21. 27. 35. 37. 38. 34. 33. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 5. 9. 13. 22. 28. 38. 41. 42. 37. 34. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/29/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 119.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/29/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED