* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/29/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 59 67 72 76 76 74 69 63 57 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 59 67 72 76 76 74 69 63 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 54 58 61 69 76 81 82 80 75 68 61 SHEAR (KTS) 14 8 5 12 9 0 12 11 22 24 33 35 36 SHEAR DIR 254 237 191 215 261 125 345 7 350 341 342 337 349 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 156 159 160 159 157 157 157 156 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 144 145 146 143 137 133 131 132 130 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 62 59 65 57 60 55 53 48 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -17 -22 -40 -54 -48 -69 -56 -63 -26 -20 18 24 200 MB DIV 20 19 21 3 -3 12 11 12 -20 -13 -22 -36 -10 LAND (KM) 513 484 480 518 588 623 690 724 733 712 683 644 621 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.3 23.1 23.8 25.0 25.9 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.8 62.8 63.8 64.9 66.0 67.9 69.4 70.4 71.0 71.6 72.2 72.4 72.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 9 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 59 56 45 41 47 69 51 45 50 53 51 53 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 25. 30. 33. 33. 30. 24. 19. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 22. 27. 31. 31. 29. 24. 18. 12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/29/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/29/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY