* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 67 72 79 86 92 94 93 87 82 76 V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 67 72 79 83 90 91 90 84 62 42 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 63 67 77 81 86 87 85 79 60 41 SHEAR (KTS) 13 2 4 4 5 13 8 13 16 20 17 15 13 SHEAR DIR 330 67 218 254 248 207 220 193 207 214 243 233 290 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 162 164 166 165 161 155 149 148 147 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 151 153 155 156 153 147 137 128 125 122 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.4 -51.2 -50.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 10 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 64 66 63 57 53 50 53 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 18 17 19 18 19 20 22 21 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 73 78 72 54 48 47 37 43 29 29 4 8 -9 200 MB DIV 32 50 45 37 36 42 47 70 39 42 3 15 -6 LAND (KM) 15 109 205 244 196 44 168 440 205 56 14 -28 -45 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.8 23.6 25.5 27.3 28.6 29.4 29.9 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.2 80.0 80.9 81.8 83.6 85.3 87.1 88.8 90.2 91.4 92.4 93.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 10 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 116 125 117 109 132 121 119 67 31 20 2 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 28. 34. 36. 36. 32. 27. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 17. 24. 31. 37. 39. 38. 32. 27. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 119.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/29/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY