* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 53 56 63 68 73 76 79 77 77 77 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 53 56 63 68 73 76 79 77 77 77 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 57 64 70 75 79 81 81 81 80 SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 12 13 5 8 13 10 17 13 23 12 11 SHEAR DIR 256 238 239 261 288 284 15 354 353 344 339 278 307 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 158 159 161 159 159 158 158 156 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 143 147 147 144 137 135 134 133 132 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 58 59 58 59 59 58 60 60 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 15 15 16 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -22 -37 -48 -45 -51 -51 -40 -17 14 35 49 71 200 MB DIV 16 35 19 3 3 0 15 13 5 -6 -4 5 10 LAND (KM) 457 445 457 503 563 579 609 590 566 544 508 480 440 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.8 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 63.4 64.3 65.4 66.5 68.7 69.8 70.6 71.1 71.4 71.7 72.1 72.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 8 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 58 56 41 43 49 71 57 61 67 68 68 69 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 34. 33. 33. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 32. 32. 32. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/29/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY