* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL972008 08/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 36 41 51 61 69 75 78 81 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 36 41 51 61 69 75 78 81 80 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 59 65 69 72 72 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 6 2 6 8 6 13 9 17 16 20 18 SHEAR DIR 48 9 5 323 280 203 184 125 114 89 78 101 82 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 129 129 129 125 121 122 123 124 127 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 128 128 129 129 124 120 118 119 119 122 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 70 74 72 68 69 64 62 59 58 60 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 15 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 79 79 80 83 76 93 76 75 65 66 86 71 50 200 MB DIV 54 82 63 61 59 67 42 29 34 49 39 8 1 LAND (KM) 329 489 655 838 1021 1399 1795 2035 1817 1649 1481 1379 1283 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 22.1 23.6 25.3 27.0 30.5 34.2 37.5 40.4 42.9 45.5 47.9 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 17 17 15 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 7 6 6 5 2 5 12 18 23 34 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 16. 26. 36. 44. 50. 53. 56. 55. 55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 7. 11. 16. 26. 36. 44. 50. 53. 56. 55. 55. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)