* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 75 80 86 94 96 95 89 84 76 72 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 75 80 81 89 91 91 84 53 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 68 73 77 81 87 90 89 84 53 37 30 SHEAR (KTS) 2 9 10 7 11 11 10 16 15 19 16 21 14 SHEAR DIR 254 236 260 255 202 206 171 221 214 256 253 273 264 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 167 169 167 163 157 151 148 146 142 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 156 160 160 154 148 140 130 125 122 120 110 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -49.9 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 69 65 68 65 59 60 56 61 55 59 57 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 17 19 18 21 21 22 19 19 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 68 60 45 47 49 52 66 40 35 -4 5 -14 0 200 MB DIV 54 50 30 18 25 24 83 32 53 21 21 15 8 LAND (KM) 115 219 220 142 82 113 374 287 104 0 -28 -86 -191 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.8 21.7 23.4 25.1 26.7 28.2 29.2 29.8 30.5 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 80.0 80.8 81.8 82.8 84.7 86.5 88.2 89.6 90.6 91.3 92.3 93.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 125 111 101 128 105 112 111 38 35 2 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -1. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 23. 31. 33. 35. 31. 26. 17. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 26. 34. 36. 35. 29. 24. 16. 12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 114.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/29/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY