* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 56 61 68 70 73 73 74 73 75 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 56 61 68 70 73 73 74 73 75 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 59 66 71 74 75 72 70 69 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 9 3 5 7 9 19 16 27 18 20 3 SHEAR DIR 237 226 253 265 216 332 14 346 337 324 308 301 289 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 158 159 160 161 160 159 159 157 157 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 146 147 145 142 137 135 135 134 135 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -52.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 59 60 56 61 57 63 61 62 57 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 17 18 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -23 -28 -24 -21 -42 -28 -35 1 12 48 58 94 200 MB DIV 28 16 9 17 2 4 16 15 36 -23 16 -7 56 LAND (KM) 435 438 480 536 543 571 591 566 510 459 425 347 254 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.8 25.1 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.9 23.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.4 65.5 66.6 67.6 69.2 70.5 71.3 71.6 72.0 72.7 73.1 73.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 10 7 5 3 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 58 43 45 49 64 66 58 65 67 70 75 71 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 27. 30. 30. 31. 29. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 23. 25. 28. 28. 29. 28. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/29/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY