* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL972008 08/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 53 60 66 72 74 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 53 60 66 72 74 75 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 47 53 60 68 75 80 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 5 8 5 7 8 8 3 4 11 4 8 SHEAR DIR 353 345 338 271 283 255 201 161 193 106 82 23 38 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 129 130 128 124 119 116 118 122 128 130 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 127 128 126 122 116 113 114 119 125 125 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 73 77 75 74 75 73 65 66 57 60 56 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 95 89 70 64 71 76 65 59 27 29 18 25 10 200 MB DIV 87 69 46 66 54 8 15 17 18 15 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 430 544 667 811 957 1283 1632 1998 2041 1867 1754 1603 1341 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 21.3 22.5 23.7 25.1 26.4 29.4 32.6 36.0 39.5 42.9 46.5 50.0 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 16 17 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 7 7 3 4 2 0 2 10 19 17 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 35. 41. 47. 49. 50. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 35. 41. 47. 49. 50. 51. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)