* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 83 88 92 98 103 104 100 91 83 74 65 V (KT) LAND 70 77 83 88 81 95 99 100 96 87 50 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 70 77 82 87 91 94 97 95 90 84 50 34 29 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 10 11 13 12 16 11 20 20 18 21 19 SHEAR DIR 220 241 243 204 199 187 197 221 233 259 253 266 261 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 166 167 167 165 161 155 151 149 140 127 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 158 157 157 153 144 135 130 128 117 104 99 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.1 -50.4 -49.4 -50.2 -49.4 -50.1 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 12 12 10 10 7 8 4 7 1 4 700-500 MB RH 70 67 68 65 65 60 60 58 56 56 55 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 20 21 23 23 22 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 72 53 56 65 70 74 75 55 36 2 14 19 -4 200 MB DIV 63 37 34 40 27 53 55 44 49 14 43 9 -1 LAND (KM) 210 218 153 102 -11 243 399 211 91 24 -125 -203 -240 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.3 24.1 25.8 27.2 28.3 29.5 30.9 31.6 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.9 81.8 82.8 83.7 85.8 87.7 89.2 90.6 91.8 93.0 93.7 94.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 13 11 9 8 8 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 114 102 128 131 48 126 37 31 23 1 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 25. 29. 31. 29. 23. 15. 6. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 13. 18. 22. 28. 33. 34. 30. 21. 13. 4. -5. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 104.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/30/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY