* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 54 59 64 66 69 68 70 70 69 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 54 59 64 66 69 68 70 70 69 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 50 52 58 63 65 65 62 59 57 56 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 4 3 7 13 15 25 26 33 25 18 15 SHEAR DIR 234 268 246 286 306 8 345 351 337 342 320 317 304 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 161 162 160 159 157 159 157 157 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 146 149 147 140 137 134 137 136 137 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 61 58 62 64 67 67 68 62 64 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 20 20 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -21 -20 -11 -28 -33 -31 -13 1 11 30 47 88 200 MB DIV 34 12 17 16 6 21 9 26 0 22 23 26 26 LAND (KM) 401 445 490 480 505 544 528 483 416 348 278 209 170 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.0 23.6 23.2 22.8 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 65.8 66.8 68.0 69.2 70.9 71.8 72.5 73.1 73.7 74.3 75.0 75.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 10 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 56 68 65 62 71 78 74 66 67 76 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 0. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 23. 25. 25. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 21. 24. 23. 25. 25. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/30/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY