* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL972008 08/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 53 59 66 70 69 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 53 59 66 70 69 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 49 56 64 70 74 76 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 4 4 5 6 7 5 8 7 14 10 9 SHEAR DIR 7 9 328 350 286 245 222 232 109 73 101 105 129 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 130 127 122 117 116 118 124 128 129 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 128 125 120 114 113 114 120 123 122 130 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 76 77 70 67 59 59 52 54 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 10 8 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 74 68 71 78 61 51 24 19 8 -25 -25 -22 200 MB DIV 78 31 51 43 31 23 20 16 14 11 -16 13 19 LAND (KM) 557 672 795 939 1086 1435 1786 2155 2031 1904 1853 1619 1389 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.1 21.4 22.8 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.7 24.9 26.3 27.6 30.8 34.0 37.4 40.8 44.2 47.6 50.9 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 8 3 6 4 0 0 3 14 18 17 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 34. 41. 45. 44. 43. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 34. 41. 45. 44. 43. 45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)