* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 96 98 101 106 107 108 100 89 84 75 65 V (KT) LAND 85 91 96 87 95 100 101 102 94 72 45 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 85 93 99 102 99 103 102 98 92 74 46 32 28 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 12 14 15 12 15 11 22 16 22 19 25 SHEAR DIR 220 235 220 202 208 152 216 207 252 255 260 242 253 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 167 167 167 163 159 153 149 149 140 132 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 157 157 156 155 150 142 133 128 126 117 107 105 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -50.2 -49.5 -49.8 -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 8 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 61 61 54 61 56 60 63 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 22 20 22 22 22 24 23 20 23 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 68 78 77 88 69 66 21 20 40 29 17 200 MB DIV 34 41 42 37 21 59 38 54 29 24 25 28 25 LAND (KM) 241 174 123 5 66 339 323 158 29 -17 -101 -162 -181 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.2 23.0 24.7 26.3 27.7 28.9 29.8 30.7 31.2 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.8 82.7 83.6 84.5 86.5 88.4 89.8 91.0 92.2 93.5 94.0 93.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 104 125 134 82 123 114 39 32 6 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 4. -1. -6. -10. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. -1. 1. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 16. 20. 20. 22. 15. 6. 1. -8. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 13. 16. 21. 22. 23. 15. 4. -1. -10. -20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 113.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/30/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED