* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 52 57 60 64 65 70 71 73 71 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 52 57 60 64 65 70 71 73 71 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 52 56 60 62 62 59 58 57 59 SHEAR (KTS) 16 8 8 9 15 11 20 23 32 26 21 15 15 SHEAR DIR 281 306 325 333 2 23 358 3 347 336 340 351 343 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 159 158 159 159 158 157 157 158 160 158 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 146 143 143 139 136 134 135 139 140 136 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 57 59 63 63 69 64 70 69 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 16 17 18 17 19 20 25 25 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -15 -32 -40 -28 -28 0 3 49 67 124 128 200 MB DIV 9 6 24 18 13 22 0 41 9 82 29 69 43 LAND (KM) 367 404 386 397 430 455 430 391 354 278 183 130 125 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.2 23.6 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.2 22.7 22.4 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 67.0 68.2 69.1 70.0 71.4 72.6 73.2 73.6 74.3 75.6 76.2 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 9 8 6 4 2 3 5 5 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 55 71 68 61 56 56 75 71 67 67 73 66 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 18. 21. 21. 25. 25. 28. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 19. 20. 25. 26. 28. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/30/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY