* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 119 121 122 122 123 118 113 100 85 74 63 57 V (KT) LAND 110 119 107 116 116 116 112 93 59 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 110 123 128 123 123 118 110 99 57 37 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 17 11 11 16 17 21 14 22 26 13 16 SHEAR DIR 233 225 211 188 153 168 202 235 261 245 270 274 277 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 167 165 161 154 149 145 139 137 134 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 156 155 152 147 138 129 121 114 112 109 105 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -49.4 -49.7 -48.9 -48.7 -48.4 -49.3 -49.4 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 10 10 7 8 4 8 2 4 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 60 63 64 61 56 61 60 62 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 25 24 26 27 29 26 23 23 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 53 61 78 71 68 86 59 27 -10 23 46 9 -13 200 MB DIV 54 43 42 21 67 67 44 22 13 41 11 24 12 LAND (KM) 149 102 -11 73 203 435 156 -4 -45 -111 -114 -145 -196 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.0 25.7 27.7 29.2 30.2 30.7 30.8 31.1 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.6 83.5 84.4 85.3 87.1 89.1 90.7 91.8 92.6 93.0 93.5 94.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 6 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 121 133 46 115 119 58 29 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 8. 6. 0. -9. -18. -27. -33. -39. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -4. -1. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 7. 2. -10. -24. -35. -46. -53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 8. 3. -10. -25. -36. -47. -53. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 106.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/30/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY