* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 08/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 53 58 62 65 67 77 77 83 83 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 53 58 62 65 67 77 77 83 83 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 51 54 59 63 65 63 62 61 63 69 SHEAR (KTS) 12 5 8 10 14 15 25 29 29 17 19 5 3 SHEAR DIR 277 290 325 7 12 354 349 348 342 327 360 274 4 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 157 158 157 156 156 156 155 157 157 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 143 143 140 136 135 135 135 137 138 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.7 -50.7 -51.0 -49.9 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 62 60 57 63 62 67 65 68 70 73 71 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 24 24 31 32 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -1 -13 -17 -15 -3 6 21 27 71 91 158 175 200 MB DIV 5 16 -5 6 13 10 37 -27 70 69 57 97 39 LAND (KM) 366 386 367 359 375 366 360 346 298 246 167 114 76 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.4 22.1 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 66.1 67.2 68.2 69.1 70.0 71.2 72.0 72.8 73.5 74.2 75.0 75.8 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 9 9 7 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 57 75 69 60 55 46 55 69 70 58 74 81 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 37.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 10. 10. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 32. 32. 38. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 32. 32. 38. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 08/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 08/30/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY