* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 08/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 61 67 72 74 75 71 67 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 61 67 72 74 75 71 67 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 39 42 48 55 62 69 77 82 86 84 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 5 4 8 7 2 9 6 2 7 26 27 SHEAR DIR 59 85 108 180 205 189 321 72 47 154 316 288 257 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.1 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.1 27.5 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 128 125 122 118 118 122 127 129 133 140 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 130 126 124 121 115 116 118 123 124 126 131 123 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 70 68 63 57 56 57 52 55 48 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 84 83 82 83 77 69 30 23 16 19 35 -26 -25 200 MB DIV 61 40 30 23 36 19 -2 19 26 -20 41 4 65 LAND (KM) 863 988 1117 1292 1467 1849 2125 1970 1891 1815 1646 1770 1426 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.5 20.7 22.7 25.6 29.3 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 25.5 26.7 27.9 29.5 31.1 34.6 38.4 42.1 45.7 48.9 51.8 53.1 51.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 15 16 17 18 19 18 18 19 19 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 6 5 4 0 1 7 17 16 16 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 31. 38. 43. 45. 46. 42. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 31. 37. 42. 44. 45. 41. 37. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 08/30/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY