* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GUSTAV AL072008 08/30/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 132 133 132 132 127 123 109 95 81 71 62 56 V (KT) LAND 125 113 124 123 123 118 114 72 44 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 125 119 131 132 130 121 112 72 43 32 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 14 18 11 8 10 17 12 23 12 21 17 20 17 SHEAR DIR 216 200 155 180 171 232 220 255 267 266 276 250 249 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 167 165 163 158 151 148 139 132 126 124 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 156 156 152 149 142 133 126 116 108 103 103 100 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -49.7 -49.5 -48.4 -48.9 -48.7 -49.6 -49.8 -50.1 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 12 11 11 9 8 6 8 4 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 64 63 59 60 59 56 59 55 61 68 66 60 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 27 26 28 29 31 25 23 22 22 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 68 78 73 75 87 61 50 0 38 37 26 17 23 200 MB DIV 60 64 44 52 50 0 24 13 60 43 16 33 -1 LAND (KM) 98 -30 97 232 368 277 44 -24 -112 -171 -207 -240 -314 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.1 26.8 28.7 30.0 30.8 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.5 84.4 85.4 86.4 88.2 90.1 91.8 93.1 93.8 94.1 94.9 96.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 8 6 3 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 106 9999 95 114 114 36 18 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 6. 2. -7. -20. -31. -42. -50. -56. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -8. -6. -2. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 6. 5. 1. -1. -2. -2. 0. -2. -6. -6. -4. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 6. 6. 1. -2. -16. -28. -41. -52. -61. -67. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 8. 7. 7. 2. -2. -16. -30. -44. -54. -63. -69. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 GUSTAV 08/30/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 107.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 GUSTAV 08/30/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY